Corona Virus, Shortages, and Supply Chains

The governors of Virginia and Maryland and the mayor of the District have issued a stay at home order, punishable by a fine and even jail time. The order goes to June 10 in Virginia. It allows us to to buy groceries, visit doctors, take a walk or get exercise, as long as we are in groups of less than ten. The point is to keep us out of crowds and out of harm's way while the pandemic rages on.

 Most people support the action. Everybody is scared now as the rate of infection and the death rate climb. The reality is settling in and the complaints about loss of freedom and government overstepping, are diminishing. There are still some diehards, but the news is sobering. Nothing focuses the mind quite so well as danger.

Besides the outright and justifiable fear of the Covid-19 virus, there's a secondary underlying palpable anxiety about the shortages of essential goods. Consumers confront stark empty shelves in sold out grocery stores. We are being confronted with shortages of everyday items we normally take for granted.

Frozen vegetables, canned goods, meats, fresh produce, milk, bread, toilet paper, disinfectants and hand sanitizer. Even flour for baking cakes and bread. At first, some of those shortages were funny and quickly became the object of jokes. After all, who in the DC Metro area hasn't experienced the panic buying of bread, milk, and toilet paper at the mere mention of a snow flurry? One long ago weather person even joked on air, "Call me whimsical but I always have toilet paper and milk at home."

Of course, in the first couple of weeks, I expected the panic buying and even hoarding. Since I'm one of those "whimsical" people who had more than a week's supplies because I shop regularly, I wasn't too worried about running low. I'd be fine for a couple of weeks - maybe three. By then, everybody will have bought what they need, the panic will subside, and how much toilet paper and Lysol wipes can a family of two or three in a suburban townhouse hoard, anyway? Where would they store it? We don't have large farmhouses or even McMansions in our neighborhood. Eventually, I figured, my neighbors would run out of room and realize the sky is not falling, just like they always do.

This time is different.

The shortages go on and on. Finding everything you need in one shopping trip is impossible. At a time when people are desperate to limit their exposure to a dangerous virus, shopping trips are taking longer and are sometimes more frequent simply because of the necessity of making multiple trips to multiple stores to find supplies. 

Business is brisk in online shopping too. People who would never before have considered delivery of their groceries are eagerly trying Peapod, Safeway, Instacart, Shipt, and other delivery services. The results have been mixed at best. 

Newspaper pundits in the Sunday sections have started predicting the ways the coronavirus would change how America lives. One of those predictions has been that the use of telework would increase as employers discover their workers are just as productive from home and expensive office space is not necessary. Another prediction was that as more and more Americans went online for their shopping, they would like its convenience, which would lead to even fewer brick and mortar stores. I don't think that's going to happen.

In what could have been their big opportunity to capture a grateful market, let's just say that for most delivery services, this has not been their shining hour. It's been impossible to get delivery service. Like all resources, it's severely strained. Every time I've tried to place any order with Giant's Peapod or Safeway's service, I can't even find a delivery date. People have told me the earliest date they can get is two weeks out, and sometimes a month away. Sometimes, you come up completely empty handed with no available dates and a message to try back later.

Besides not having delivery dates available, they don't have the most needed goods in stock. Stores like Walmart, CVS, and Target are limiting supplies to one package per customer and only selling scarce goods in their stores. You just have to be lucky to get there when what you need is available and hope for the best.  Dan and I have not seen any brand of wipes in a store for three weeks and they are either out of stock or not being sold online. For now, they seem impossible to get. 

This brings me to a question. Why the extreme shortages of things whose availability we used to take for granted? 

I can certainly understand a severe shortage of ventilators in hospitals. Ventilators are expensive and are not used commonly. They are essentially emergency equipment for relatively rare crisis situations, not frequently used medical devices. Given their expense, most hospitals only have a few available at any given time. Nobody planned for a pandemic on this scale. Nobody expected to run out of them. Nobody could.

But shortages of surgical masks and other disposable protective gear? The last time I was in an ER those were plentiful, given to any patient suspected of having a flu. You could buy a box of surgical masks in a supermarket or drugstore without even thinking about it. And now even hospitals can't get them for medical staff. That's insane.

For most routine stuff, I can indeed understand a temporary shortage in the early days of panic buying and hoarding, before retailers realized demand had shot up and before suppliers started ramping up. But with modern technology to track sales and inventory, they should already be figuring out the sharp increase in demand? And after three weeks of the public buying more than they could possibly use in more than a week or two, why is it still so hard for stores to be restocked?

What I am asking here is whether there is something wrong at a more basic level with our supply chain?

How much of the shortages are caused by how little of our consumer goods are manufactured in the U.S.? How much of the delay in getting more supplies is caused by the fact that they have to be imported and we are competing on an international market for goods produced far away from us at a time when an international supply chain has been disrupted by crisis?

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I don't think there is a deliberate plan to block our access to consumer goods we need. Indeed, the entire rest of the world is experiencing the same panic buying, hoarding behavior, severe shortages and supply chain disruptions as we are. I know this.

But I am wondering whether we are paying a steep price now for having outsourced and off shored so much of our manufacturing capacity? We are basically competing with other countries in crisis for the same still limited supplies on an international market with less control over ramping up production. If more of our consumer goods were made at home, we could solve a couple of problems caused by the pandemic. First, many of the out of work employees from the hospitality and retail industries currently closed down would be able to find jobs in manufacturing as those companies expanded to meet the rising, albeit temporary, demand. And with more goods flowing into our stores, the panic could ease. As it is now, every day of shortages simply produces more panic buying and more hoarding. I don't know when we will find our way out of that vicious cycle. But I'm pretty sure now that it won't be any time soon.

It seems fear of the virus itself and accompanying anxiety about shortages and deprivation are our new normal at least for several more months. 

Staying Safe from Covid-19 and the Big Bear Hunt

We live in strange times when taking a simple ride from the suburbs into town becomes a death defying act of bravery. But Dan had to drive in to sign some emergency relief checks for the DC Metro Labor Council so they could distribute hardship funds to families whose breadwinners had lost jobs due to all the closures. It was a scary act of mercy.

“Come on, take a ride,” Dan urged me. I looked at him as if he were mad and then realized he was right. I could stay in the car, sitting in bright sunlight, outside the AFL-CIO Building. He and the council’s executive director stayed their distance as she passed him the box of checks. He had gloves and his own pen and hand sanitizer, thanks to the small purse size bottles the Bank of Labor had given out a week earlier. The one thing you can say about labor. We take care of our own. And as many others as we can.

The ride in was glorious and fear gave way to awe at the beauty of the cherry blossoms, still in full bloom, at the Tidal Basin. Everything was either delicate pinks and whites or that pale green of fresh young leaves on trees and grass. It was definitely what I needed.

On the way home, we stopped to pick up a takeout lunch. The local Popeye’s had no drive through window or curbside delivery so we passed and went to Taco Bell – yes, the craving for junk food was strong after all those healthy salads and whole wheat bread and turkey sandwiches at home. We used the takeout window, got home and carefully took off outer wrappers, washed our hands, and then tucked into oozing grease and special sauce for our burritos.

And that brings me to the issue of food safety in the time of coronavirus. There’s a lot of good information out there on how to stay safe when bringing groceries home from stores and how to protect yourself when ordering and bringing in deliveries from your porch or doorstep. There’s also, as always, some bad information too. Let’s start with the good.

So far, there is no evidence that coronaviruses are spread in food. There’s a video making the rounds where a family practice doctor advises washing fresh fruits and vegetables with dish soap. Now, I’m sure the guy is well meaning. But frankly alarm bells went off for me. It’s not a good idea. The CDC, FDA, and World Safety Organization all recommend against doing this. First, it’s not necessary. Covid-19 is not a food borne disease. But they don’t even recommend doing that for actual food borne illnesses, primarily because it’s not safe. 

There’s some controversy over that, with some people swearing that they wash their produce with dish soap and they are perfectly fine. The key, they say, is to rinse off the produce thoroughly after giving it a good soak in soapy water. But dish soaps can leave a residue and it’s hard to get all of it off, especially on leafy greens that have lots of nooks, crannies, and crevices.

Most food safety organizations recommend rinsing produce thoroughly in plain water and using a vegetable brush to scrub grime off. There also are commercial washes especially made for produce that are safe to use, though these organizations say it’s not necessary. My feeling is if it’s safe for human consumption and makes you feel better, why not?

Another thing you can do if you are really anxious or immune-compromised is to just not eat raw produce right now. I know the health benefits of a colorful and tasty salad. And despite firmly believing lettuce kills, I actually like salads and still eat them, even now. But they aren’t necessary to get your nutrients. Remember, this pandemic may go on a long time but ultimately, it is a temporary situation. So, it’s okay to forego raw foods. Cooked vegetables are healthy and the virus does not survive the heat of cooking. You can also bake apples or make fruit cobblers to get fruits too. There are lots of ways to cook produce to keep it safe

But what about the outer packaging on foodstuff and other groceries? Ah, that’s trickier.

In general, the coronavirus can survive and be detected on hard surfaces anywhere from a few hours to a few days. Covid-19 is a respiratory disease and its main way of spreading is from droplets in the air when people cough or sneeze. Some experts feel the risk of infection from deliveries and packages is minimal. Most things shipped over night or over a few days are safe because the virus doesn't last on surfaces indefinitely. The one real risk is if the actual person delivering to your door is infected and sneezes or coughs on it or touches it after doing so. It may not be a huge risk, but it is there. So, it's helpful to know how long the virus lasts on various surfaces and what you can do to protect yourself.

On copper, it lasts about four hours. On stainless steel, plastics, and most kitchen counter tops, it lasts about three days. On cardboard and paper, it can last 24 hours. It can survive on glass for 96 hours. Here's a pretty good chart to illustrate it, But it’s strength degrades over time and under various conditions including the temperature and humidity. When you bring in your groceries and even things delivered to your door, there are some safety precautions you can take to minimize the risk from spreading the virus.

What's important to know is that common disinfectants from Lysol to Clorox kill it effectively.

So, here’s what I’ve been doing. When I bring stuff home or get in a delivery, I either use a Lysol wipe (until I ran out) or saturate a paper towel with Lysol spray so it’s as wet as a wipe would be, and I simply wipe down jars, cans, and bottles. Anything nonperishable in a cardboard box, I simply put aside for a day or put away in the pantry, since the bug only lives on it for about 24 hours. It will die on its own, so if you don’t need to use it immediately, just leave it. Otherwise, wipe it down too. Then, I wash my hands thoroughly.

An encouraging thing to remember is that coronavirus is not spread just by touching infected surfaces. You have to touch them and then rub your eyes, touch your mouth, or touch your nose. If you touch something – such as picking up a box from outside – disinfect or place the box out of the way for 24 hours and promptly and thoroughly wash your hands immediately after handling it, you have stopped the chain of infection from occurring. Of course, if you have them, you can also wear gloves while touching and disinfecting these things. And nobody will think you are paranoid in this day and age.

It sounds like a lot of work when writing or reading about it, but I unloaded some groceries and brought in some delivered goods yesterday and it took me a few minutes to wipe everything down and give myself the peace of mind.

Another thing that will give you peace of mind is to do something to get your mind off the pervasive fear and anxiety most of us are feeling. Taking walks, with proper social distancing, watching light comedies or favorite old movies, staying connected online or on the phone, and doing something positive, like engaging in the Great Bear Hunt.

This is something like a scavenger hunt somebody started in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Parents and their kids, when walking or driving around their neighborhoods, can look for and see how many teddy bears they can spot and point out in their neighbors’ windows.

I’m a teddy bear collector. So, I’ve got my I Love New York bear out in honor of my hometown, which is now the epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak in the U.S. I hope he gives some joy to those who walk past my window and I hope some of you say a little prayer for those brave citizens of New York and for all of us.

Early Spring

I am not really built for times that require bravery. I have struggled with fears, phobias, and high anxiety most of my life, no doubt some inherited from my mother and other family members. There’s a streak of paranoia that runs deep. Indeed, I firmly believe lettuce kills.

Don’t believe me? Just go to the CDC food safety site and look up food borne illnesses, especially Romaine lettuce.

Times like these, where we have all been ordered to self-quarantine, lockdown, and shelter in place, could easily turn me into an agoraphobic. I fight it by taking long walks every day. We live in strange times when simply leaving one’s house feels like an act of bravery.  

One of the things that has struck me is how beautiful all the blooming trees have been this spring. Even before this covid-19 virus took over our lives, waking consciousness, dreams, and nightmares, when it was just a blip on the radar with newspaper reports out of China, I was struck by how particularly lovely this time of year has been.

We had a mild winter that segued into an early spring. There are years when the tulip magnolias in Lafayette Park bloom for a couple of days and then a blast of icy air kills them off, leaving shriveled, brown, frostbitten blossoms. This year, though, they seemed indestructible and bloomed everywhere. Cherry trees blossomed along the Tidal Basin, seemingly lasting forever. No unexpected frosts, no violent wind storms to rip away their blossoms and leave the ground looking like it had been littered by delicate pink and white confetti. I can’t help thinking, this year these fragile blossoms have become a symbol of resilience.

 Here in Virginia, they were every bit as resilient and stunning, making the daily commute into DC pleasurable, even as fears began to slowly mount. Then, of course, last week, we were ordered out of our office building and the lovely morning and evening rides home ceased.

I am blessed by how many flowering trees we have in Burke Center, forsythia, cherry blossom, pear trees, eventually dogwoods will bloom. So, I force myself outside. The other day, though, there were so many other people out on a warm sunny day. The usual teen agers with friends, the joggers, some with their dogs trotting along, and senior citizens like me out taking walks. All trying for some normalcy. But I confess, it was a little scary out there – a little too peopley – as we’d pass, some of us would eye each other warily, some stepping a bit farther away – just how far is the recommended six-foot distance anyway?

One woman passed me and she was wearing a mask. I admit it scared me. Was she just trying to protect herself? Was she already infected?  I had to pass her; there was no way back home if I didn’t. Or I could make a jackass out of myself by turn around and going back in the other direction.

Just then, she stepped off the sidewalk onto a side path and motioned me to go. I gave her a thumbs up. Then I stopped and put my palms together and gave her a full bow of gratitude. She burst out laughing.

It made my day. Human contact. And the soothing, calming beauty of trees and flowers. It’s true what psychologists say about the healing power of nature. Even for somebody scared of lettuce.